Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Tornado Watch Possible Soon

Posted on: 9:57 pm, January 29, 2013, by Jason Simpson, updated on: 11:00pm, January 29, 2013

11 PM Update:

A Tornado Watch is in effect for Lawrence, Wayne, and Hardin Counties in Southern Middle Tennessee until 4 AM. This watch will likely be extended east as the storms get closer after 2-3 AM:

2

The Storm Prediction Center may issue a Tornado Watch for Northeast Mississippi, West and Middle Tennessee and The Shoals area in Northwest Alabama soon:

mcd0084

 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0084
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0949 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
 
    AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN/CNTRL/WRN MS...ERN AR...NERN LA
 
    CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...
 
    VALID 300349Z - 300545Z
 
    THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 10 CONTINUES.
 
    SUMMARY...COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE WARM
    SECTOR BAND OF TSTMS ALONG THE MS RIVER. NRN PORTION OF THIS QLCS
    SHOULD ACCELERATE EWD IN TN OVERNIGHT WITH EMBEDDED BOWING
    STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.
 
    DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE CHARACTER HAS BEGUN TRANSITIONING TO AN
    ACCELERATING QLCS...PRIMARILY N OF WW 10...REF MCD 0083. THIS QLCS
    SHOULD CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH A PERSISTENT PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
    SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION S/SWWD INTO NERN LA. WHILE...UPSTREAM
    COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE SRN
    PORTION OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IN LA. WITH THESE PROCESSES
    OCCURRING WITHIN AN IMMENSELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THIS SHOULD
    ULTIMATELY YIELD AN EXTENSIVE NNE/SSW-ORIENTED QLCS.
 
    THIS SHOULD TRANSITION A MIXED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO
    PREDOMINANTLY DAMAGING WINDS AS SEMI-DISCRETE STRUCTURES EVOLVE INTO
    EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS. 850-700 MB FLOW WILL BE STRONGER FROM THE
    TN/MS BORDER LATITUDE NWD...SUGGESTIVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
    WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS TN. GREATEST RELATIVE TORNADO RISK SHOULD
    PERSIST ALONG THE SRN PORTION /MS/ AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS HAVE
    RELATIVELY LONGER OPPORTUNITY FOR MAINTAINING INGEST OF RICH
    BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
 
    ..GRAMS.. 01/30/2013

-Jason
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Source: http://valleywx.com/2013/01/29/tornado-watch-possible-soon-2/

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